—Sylvester Loving, B1Daily

Benjamin Netanyahu’s political grip on Israel is loosening, but the man who has dominated its politics for years is not out of power yet. Following the October 27 election, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot has been given the first chance to form a government. The twist is that Arab-led parties, long treated by Israel’s right as political outsiders, could determine whether Netanyahu finally loses the premiership.

Netanyahu Lost His Majority, Not the Fight

The election produced a fragmented 120-seat Knesset. Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist bloc emerged with 53 seats, while the bloc led by Eisenkot won 48. Arab-led parties captured a record 19 seats, enough to make their support potentially decisive. Neither principal bloc independently reached the 61 seats required for a majority.

President Isaac Herzog formally tasked Eisenkot with forming a government on November 8 after consultations in which parties representing 67 lawmakers recommended him, compared with 46 for Netanyahu. Eisenkot has 28 days to negotiate a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. That is a mandate to try, not a declaration that a new government already exists.

Arab Voters Have Become the Kingmakers

The most politically significant result may be the record performance of Arab-led parties. Their lawmakers have an opportunity to influence who governs Israel, even as the country’s right wing warns against a government dependent on their support. Arab citizens’ concerns over discrimination, public safety, housing, and the treatment of Palestinians are no longer easily dismissed as peripheral issues when their elected representatives can help decide the next prime minister.

But endorsement is not the same thing as a governing alliance. Arab-led parties have supported giving Eisenkot the opportunity to form a government, while Eisenkot and some potential coalition partners remain wary of formally joining forces with them. That distinction matters. A government can receive outside parliamentary support without bringing those parties into the cabinet, and the negotiations remain deeply uncertain.

The Coalition Math Is Brutal

Eisenkot could seek support from Arab-led lawmakers, ultra-Orthodox parties, or elements of Netanyahu’s own political camp. Each option comes with ideological contradictions and political costs. His potential allies disagree over military conscription, judicial reform, the war in Gaza, settlements in the occupied West Bank, and whether Arab parties should have a meaningful role in government formation.

Netanyahu is hardly a passive spectator. He remains the leader of the largest parliamentary bloc, and a failed Eisenkot negotiation could hand him another opportunity. The prime minister’s allies have also promoted allegations of voting irregularities involving Arab parties. Those allegations should not be treated as established facts without evidence.

A New Prime Minister Would Not Automatically Mean a New Israel

Even if Eisenkot succeeds, replacing Netanyahu would not by itself settle Israel’s deeper political conflicts. A former military chief is not automatically a champion of Palestinian statehood, and an anti-Netanyahu coalition could still be divided on Gaza, the West Bank, settlement policy, and equal citizenship. The real test would be whether a new government changes policy rather than merely changes the name on the prime minister’s office.

For Arab voters, this moment carries a larger democratic question: will their political influence be recognized as legitimate, or treated as an emergency to be contained whenever it threatens the right’s hold on power? A country cannot celebrate elections while treating a substantial portion of its electorate as unacceptable participants in governing.

Netanyahu’s Future Is Uncertain

The election has weakened Netanyahu and given his opponents an opening, but talk of his political demise is premature. Eisenkot has a deadline, a divided parliament, and a complicated set of possible partners. If he can turn electoral opposition into a functioning government, Israel could be entering a new political era. If he cannot, Netanyahu may yet survive another challenge.

For now, the story is not that Netanyahu has fallen. It is that Arab-led parties have become impossible to ignore in the battle over who comes next.

—Sylvester Loving, B1Daily