—Matt Gwinta, Terrence Dorner, B1Daily

The 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement was hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough that ended one of Africa’s deadliest modern wars. After two years of brutal fighting between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the accord promised a permanent cessation of hostilities, disarmament, humanitarian access, and political normalization.

Nearly four years later, that promise appears to be unraveling.

Renewed fighting in western Tigray has become one of the most serious breaches of the peace agreement since it was signed, raising fears that Ethiopia could once again descend into a large-scale conflict that would destabilize not only the Horn of Africa but also one of the continent’s most strategically important military regions.

From a military perspective, the warning signs have been building for months.

The Peace Agreement Was Never Fully Implemented

Military planners often describe ceasefires as opportunities to address the causes of conflict before they reignite.

That process appears incomplete in Ethiopia.

Although the Pretoria Agreement formally ended large-scale combat, many of its most difficult provisions remained unresolved. Questions surrounding western Tigray, security arrangements, political authority, accountability, and the withdrawal of outside forces continued to fuel tensions long after the guns initially fell silent.

Peace agreements rarely fail because of a single battle.

They fail when unresolved political and military disputes accumulate until neither side believes the agreement still serves its interests.

Western Tigray Remains the Strategic Fault Line

The latest clashes occurred near Sheraro in western Tigray, an area bordering Sudan that has long held both military and political importance.

Tigrayan authorities accused Ethiopian federal forces of launching the offensive, while Ethiopian officials blamed forces aligned with TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael for initiating the fighting. Both sides are urging support while assigning responsibility to the other.

Regardless of which side fired first, the operational reality is clear.

The front lines have become active again.

Once troops begin maneuvering in contested territory, the risk of escalation rises dramatically.

Internal Divisions Have Weakened Tigray

One of the most overlooked military developments has been the fragmentation within Tigrayan leadership itself.

Since the peace agreement, Tigray has experienced internal political and military divisions, including disputes between competing factions and the emergence of rival armed groups such as the Tigray Peace Force. These internal fractures complicate negotiations and make unified implementation of any peace agreement more difficult.

Military history consistently shows that fractured command structures make ceasefires significantly harder to sustain.

Without unified political control, enforcing discipline across armed formations becomes increasingly difficult.

Ethiopia Faces Multiple Security Crises Simultaneously

Tigray is no longer Ethiopia’s only security concern.

The federal government continues to contend with armed violence in Amhara and ongoing conflict involving Oromo insurgents in parts of Oromia. These simultaneous security challenges place additional demands on military resources and political leadership.

From a strategic standpoint, multi-front instability creates opportunities for localized conflicts to expand.

If fighting intensifies in Tigray while other regions remain unstable, Ethiopia could find itself managing multiple high-intensity security crises at once.

Trust Between the Parties Has Eroded

Military ceasefires depend upon confidence that both parties will honor their commitments.

That confidence appears to have deteriorated.

Federal officials accuse elements of the TPLF of undermining the agreement.

Tigrayan leaders accuse Addis Ababa of blockades, drone operations, and failing to implement key provisions of the Pretoria Agreement.

When both sides conclude that the agreement is no longer being honored, military escalation often becomes more likely.

Accountability Gaps Have Added to the Tensions

Another challenge is the limited progress on accountability for alleged wartime abuses.

Human rights organizations have argued that investigations into alleged violations have been incomplete and that transitional justice efforts have stalled. Critics contend that unresolved accountability issues continue to fuel mistrust between the parties.

While accountability alone cannot guarantee peace, unresolved grievances can make reconciliation considerably more difficult.

Regional Implications Extend Beyond Ethiopia

The Horn of Africa occupies one of the world’s most strategically important regions.

Conflict in northern Ethiopia has implications for Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Red Sea shipping lanes, and broader regional security.

Large-scale renewed fighting could generate additional refugee flows, disrupt humanitarian operations, and increase pressure on neighboring states already facing their own security and political challenges.

Military planners throughout East Africa are undoubtedly watching developments closely.

Can the Peace Deal Be Saved?

The Pretoria Agreement has not formally collapsed.

Diplomatic efforts remain possible, and renewed negotiations could still reduce tensions.

However, military realities suggest the agreement is under greater strain than at any point since its signing.

Active combat has resumed.

Political trust has eroded.

Internal divisions have multiplied.

Strategic territorial disputes remain unresolved.

Multiple armed actors continue operating across northern Ethiopia.

Taken together, these factors create an increasingly fragile security environment.

History demonstrates that peace agreements rarely fail overnight.

They deteriorate gradually through repeated violations, declining confidence, and unresolved political disputes until a single military confrontation pushes the process beyond recovery.

Whether the latest fighting represents a temporary setback or the beginning of another prolonged conflict will depend on the willingness of both sides to return to negotiations before battlefield dynamics replace diplomacy altogether.

For now, the warning signs are unmistakable: the peace that ended one of Africa’s bloodiest wars is no longer secure.

—Matt Gwinta, Terrence Dorner, B1Daily