—Barrington Williams, B1Daily

Donald Trump isn’t technically on the ballot in November.

Politically, however, he is becoming difficult to separate from it.

With the 2026 midterms approaching, congressional races that ordinarily revolve around local candidates are increasingly being fought around the record of Trump’s second term: the economy, inflation, tariffs, immigration, the Iran war and the overall direction of his administration.

Trump himself has encouraged that framing. At the Republican Party’s September midterm convention in Dallas, he urged voters to “pretend that I’m on the ballot.” Reuters reported that some Republican activists welcomed the Trump-centered strategy as a way to energize supporters, while others worried about its ability to appeal to independents.

In other words, Republicans aren’t merely being dragged into a referendum on Trump.

Trump is helping put his own name on the imaginary ballot.

The Economy Is Becoming the Battlefield

The biggest problem for Republicans may not be Washington scandal or partisan warfare.

It is the checkout line.

A July Pew Research Center survey found that economic concerns were the most commonly mentioned issues registered voters wanted congressional candidates to discuss. Cost of living and affordability alone accounted for 15 percent of responses.

More recent polling shows why that matters.

A September Marquette Law School poll found Trump’s overall approval at 37 percent. His ratings were considerably lower on several pocketbook issues: 28 percent approved of his handling of the economy, 20 percent approved of his handling of gas prices and just 19 percent approved of his handling of inflation and the cost of living.

Those numbers don’t determine what will happen in individual congressional districts. But they explain why Republicans would prefer some races to remain about their candidates rather than become national judgments about the White House.

Then Came Iran and the Tariff Wars

Trump’s second-term record extends well beyond grocery prices.

The war with Iran has become another major issue, particularly after disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies contributed to higher fuel prices. Trump’s approval for handling the conflict stood at 26 percent in the September Marquette survey.

Trade is creating its own headaches.

Trump’s escalating tariff confrontation with Canada has become particularly sensitive in northern states whose economies are closely integrated with Canadian trade. Reuters reported September 17 that Republican candidates in places such as Michigan and Maine are trying to balance support from Trump’s political base against concerns from independents over tariffs and the economy.

That illustrates the central difficulty of these midterms.

Candidates are running for Congress.

But voters are repeatedly being asked to judge policies coming from the White House.

Trump Is Already a Major Factor in Voters’ Decisions

The clearest evidence that these elections are becoming a referendum on Trump comes directly from voters.

Pew found in July that 42 percent of registered voters described their congressional vote as a vote against Trump, while 22 percent described it as a vote for him. Another 35 percent said Trump wasn’t much of a factor.

The partisan divide was enormous.

Among Democratic-leaning voters, 81 percent described their vote as opposition to Trump. Among Republican-leaning voters, 44 percent considered their vote supportive of Trump, while half said Trump wasn’t much of a factor.

That is remarkably revealing.

Millions of Americans may enter a voting booth ostensibly choosing a representative or senator while psychologically casting another vote on the president.

Republicans Still Have Issues Working in Their Favor

Calling the election a referendum on Trump doesn’t mean every political indicator favors Democrats.

Pew’s July survey found Republicans continued to hold advantages with voters on crime and immigration policy, while the parties were essentially tied on policies involving military force and the economy. Democrats held advantages on health care, environmental policy, abortion and education.

Trump also retains substantial support within the Republican electorate.

That explains the gamble behind putting him at the center of the campaign. Republicans want voters who enthusiastically supported Trump in 2024 to show up even though Trump himself isn’t seeking office this year.

The difficulty is reproducing Trump’s turnout coalition without simultaneously energizing voters who strongly oppose him.

The Latest Polling Shows the Stakes

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted after the Republican convention put Trump’s approval at 35 percent, up slightly from 33 percent in late August.

On the generic congressional ballot, 44 percent of respondents selected Democrats and 37 percent Republicans. Reuters appropriately cautioned that national generic-ballot polling cannot capture the individual state and congressional district contests that actually determine control of Congress.

That caveat is important.

America doesn’t conduct one national congressional election. It conducts hundreds of individual races.

Candidate quality, district boundaries, turnout, fundraising and local political conditions can all produce results considerably different from national polling.

So describing these midterms as a referendum on Trump doesn’t tell us who will control Congress afterward.

It tells us what increasingly appears to be shaping the argument voters are being asked to settle.

The Second Term Goes Before the Voters

Midterms traditionally provide voters with their first nationwide opportunity to respond to a new administration.

The 2026 election carries an unusually personal version of that dynamic because Trump has dominated American politics for more than a decade and has deliberately placed himself at the center of Republican campaigning.

His supporters can use November to register approval of his second-term agenda.

His opponents can use it to register rejection.

And voters concerned primarily about inflation, tariffs, immigration, health care, Iran or another issue can judge congressional candidates on how closely they support or oppose the administration’s policies.

Trump asked Americans to pretend he is on the ballot.

Increasingly, that appears to be exactly how many voters are approaching November.

—Barrington Williams, B1Daily